What could possibly justify invading a sovereign independent state like Ukraine? The only way to answer this is by looking at things from a Russian perspective, because in spite of the raging fight on the ground, the war is not really about Ukraine. It is about Russia and its pursuit of geopolitics. It is about the Kremlin and its relationship with the White House. One of Russia's initial demands for de-escalation, just before the war erupted was for NATO to roll back from Eastern Europe. And that's what it ultimately comes down to. In many ways the Ukrainian conflict echoes the Soviet collapse. There is certainly an element of nation building culture and history that draws Russia and Ukraine to each other, but from a geopolitical lens,The war is bigger than Ukraine. It is about Russia attempting to restore the multi-polar global order that was lost, like a gambling man who makes a living out of false hope. Russia believes that it must either be a world power or there will be no Russia.
The collapse of the Soviet Union marked a turning point in global geopolitics. No less than 14 Union republics broke away and proclaimed sovereignty and independence. The main body however, the newly established Russian Federation had lost centuries of geopolitical strife, Russia had been thrown back to its 18th century territorial boundaries. All the sacrifices the Russian Imperial Army and the Soviet Red Army made were nullified on December 1991, when the Soviet flag was lowered from the Kremlin, and replaced with the flag of Russia. An event that still haunts Russian foreign policy to this day. With the fall of the USSR came broken promises plummeting health care, industrial decay, while kinship was replaced with hostility and all those glorious technological marvels and infrastructure projects were left to rot tens of millions of lives were lost, with nothing to show for it. The death of the Soviet Union was the end of communism as a global force, but it also marked the end of Russia as a superpower. For having retreated from its Soviet borders ,from its outer shell, Russia itself was severely exposed to dangerous emanating from the west.
Part of the Russian rationale for invading Ukraine is the heartland theory. Drafted in 1904 by Halford Mackinder. The Heartland theory divides the world in three bodies. The first body is the Rhode Island which consists of Europe, Asia, and Africa. The second body refers to the offshore islands like the British Isles and the Japanese archipelago, while the third body points to the Americas and Australia as outlying islands .Within these parameters through a special emphasis on the world islands because it is the most populous and resource rich landmass.Imagine of a super state controlled policymaking from France to China to Saudi Arabia to South Africa, that power would have the technological prowess of Europe, the resources of Africa and the workforce of Asia. Nothing would stand in its way. So whoever controls the world island would have the means to dominate the globe. However, it was in the world island that it was the heartland region which extends from the Volga River to the Yangtze and from the Arctic to the Caspian Sea. This Heartland region is the domain from which a single power could dominate the rest of the world Island provided that the power enjoys stability home. Russia is the power that sits at the center of this theory, which is why it resonates with Russian foreign policy, but it gets even more zealous. Further dissecting the world Island is Eastern Europe. Mackinders theory argues that the home territory as the heartland power sits in Eastern Europe, so any power seeking global supremacy would emerge from the eastern half of the European continent. It's just about a nod to Russia. Now Mackinders theory initially served as a warning to the European powers but instead became the manifest destiny of the Soviet Union. The Heartland theory was so powerful that it shaped the course of the Cold War, and it continues to dominate Russian geopolitical thinking to this day, for instance, Alexander Dugin, with one of the most influential Russian political speakers has consistently argued for a Russian based Eurasian power and the Russian policymaking elite, known as the Siloviki still adhere to the heartland theory. Admittedly, it seems strange to use a century old geopolitical theory as a template in foreign policy. But one thing that keeps the heartland theory relevant is the constituency of geography. The Earth has domain over humankind, not vice versa. So having control over Eastern Europe would allow Russia to reclaim its global setting.
Beyond pursuing a multipolar global order. There are also local nuances at play, extending from St. Petersburg to Kazaan to Volgograd is the Russian core .80% of the Russian population lives in this area. And much of the decision making by the Kremlin is based on the needs and interests of its core. However, the terrain itself is flat and part of the European plane. This open green plane widens as it stretches eastward. By the time the European plane reaches the borders of the Russian Federation, It's width eclipses 2000 kilometers, no amount of weaponry can fully defend such a vast threat landscape .Seen in this way the loss of the Soviet boundaries cost the Russians dearly, both politically and economically. Russia is forced to maintain a massive border with some of the most sophisticated militaries in the world. It has been a costly status quo. Accordingly, to reduce military spending. Russia needs to reduce its exposure along the European plane. To do that, however, Russian policymakers argue that the Russian state needs to anchor by the Baltic Sea and the Carpathian Mountains . The Baltic region is an interesting case. Individually the Baltic nations lacked the strength to threaten Russia, but the region as a whole acts as a conduit for great powers to exert pressure on the Russian core. From the Swedish incursion in the 18th century to the German invasions in a 20th century,Plenty of European powers have tried subduing Russia by going through the Baltics. Today, however, Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania are part of NATO, which places them beyond the reach of Russian subjugation. Be that as it may, geopolitics dictates that Russia take over the Baltics should the opportunity ever present itself .doing so would allow the Russians to connect the Kaliningrad region to the Russian mainland . Control of the Baltics will also strengthen Russia's presence and hold over the Baltic Sea at large. Meanwhile, the Carpathians present an auspicious foothold for the Russians a buffer against marching armies. The arc that is the Carpathian range is not impenetrable, but it does offer strategic depth to the occupying force in an otherwise flat space. . That consideration is the ultimate rationale for Russia's invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, it also means that the Russian objective in Ukraine is to take the entire country so as much as the rhetoric focuses on Donbass, Kharkiv ,Kyiv and Odessa, it misses the larger point .From the Russian angle they need to push up to the Carpathian Mountains. So Russia needs all of Ukraine, but also all of Moldova .When Lukashenko spoke with the members of the Belarusain Security Council, the map he used had an arrow going into the Moldova separatist region of Transnistria. So had Russia's military invasion of Ukraine, gone more successfully, Moldova would have seen fighting as well. By and large with the invasion of Ukraine, Russia sought to anchor by the Carpathians . By taking over all of Ukraine and eventually Moldova, Russia would have restored a portion of the Soviet boundaries, enough to reduce its exposed flying by the European plane to six hundered kilometers, which is a substantial drop from the current two thousand kilometers. Ideally, the Russians would want to push west as much as they can, preferably taking over all of Poland and the Baltics. Ukraine is in a fight for its existence and if Russia wins the Baltics and Poland are next count on it. Likewise, if Russia loses the war in Ukraine, or it can't have all of it today, it will try again Tomorrow. No treaty or ceasefire will last. Think of the European plane as a game of chess, where each player seeks to maximize the position of its pawns By strategically placing them. The further NATO push us east into the European plane towards the Russian Federation,the more flexible its strategic planning becomes and the more room for mistakes it gains. a NATO allied Ukraine would likely see cruise missile launches on its soil, where flight time to the Russian core would be around three minutes, a build up like that would force the Russians to spend even more on the military by establishing new bases deep in Russian territory. For instance, east of the border of Ukraine, the flat terrain of the European plane continues uninterrupted for 750 kilometers to the shoreline of the Caspian Sea. This line known as the Volgograd gap is fundamental to the existence of the Russian state should a hostile force close this gap it will disconnect Russia from the Caucasus the Black Sea and the Caspian Sea. A NATO allied Ukraine would certainly look to exploit that vulnerability. It wouldn't happen overnight. The build up would be a steady process taking decades, but it would happen nevertheless. Having said that, the reverse is true as well. The more Russia pushes westward, the more secure the Russian core gets the more room for error it gains and the fewer options NATO has. So a Russian controlled Ukraine would see the militarization of Poland, Romania and the Baltic nations even more so than a present. From the Russian point of view that would balance the scale of things.
All things considered. Ukraine is only one piece in Russia's geopolitical design. It's still a large piece, but one piece nonetheless, by taking over Ukraine and Moldova, Russia believes it could lift itself as a premier global power while also securing its core demographic space. Going by this for Russia It's either expand or die. Russian policymakers, particularly the Siloviki believe that political legitimacy comes from military conquest. They believe that peace is a lie, just another means of decay like death by thousand cuts.
Kommentare