Climate Change is expected to displace millions by mid-century . As families flee water scarcity , crop failure and rising sea levels the refugee crisis is bound to wreck havoc on the International system with tremendous economic and political consequences . Russia however is likely to be insulated from the most disastrous effects in fact Russians actually stand to benefit from Climate change in numerous ways and policy makers in Moscow believe this is their license to global resurgence .
For years Russian government ministries and Public science services have suggested that Moscow is exploring for ways to profit from Climate change rather than look for ways to slash carbon emissions . For most Rising sea levels effect urban coastal centers the most . Low lying areas in South-East , South Asia Europe and North America will be hit particularly hard still worse, countries that lack resources such as Bangladesh, Nigeria ,Myanmar, Cambodia etc . will we without defense and instigate a wave of refugees . In Russia however most people reside in the European half of the Russian landmass which is nowhere near an ocean . So Geography shields many of Russia's urban centers giving it's government additional options . For comparison a modest sea-level increase of 45 cms would displace 14.2 million Americans but under the same conditions it would affect 1.8 million Russians . Washington would still maintain better resources to respond to climate change compared to Moscow but while in the past the inland focus of Russia was perceived as a weakness , now its an advantage .
Nowhere is the Moscow's potential more evident than in the Arctic where its leadership anticipates an economic boom ushered in by rising temperatures and melting ice . A study by the US National oceanic and atmospheric administration claims that the volume of the arctics oldest and thickest ice has decreased by an astonishing 95%. For the Global community that is a dreadful news , For Russia it is an opportunity . Another study by the US Geological Survey estimates that 13% of the World's untapped crude oil reserves and 30% of the natural gas reserves are trapped in the arctic ,right in Putin's backyard . As the permafrost disappears and research and development improves , the cost of resource extraction are set to reduce and facilitate and economic boom for Russia . Putin therefore embraces Climate change . Additionally as the Ice-caps melt , the Arctic would open up the Northern sea route . This shipping lane which extends from Russia's coast by Murmansk to the Bearing strait and East - Asia , would make for a shorter journey than through the Suez canal . Russia will still have to invest in new ports or railways and roads as well as set up permits and insurances but as the ice continues to melt , the new waterway would become navigable for a longer period of time . This would offer Chinese exports an Alternative route to Europe thereby granting Moscow substantial leverage over NATO states which is why in 2018 Putin issued a demand to Russian agencies to quadruple the cargo volume being shipped through the Arctic . The deadline was set for 2024 and international shipping firms have already begun testing the waters .
As shipping companies cheer the melting ice the warming climate could also morph a significant portion of the Siberian territories from an un-inhabitable frozen tundra to a fertile land .
The Agricultural potential in Siberia is enormous and if realized it would contribute to the diversification of the Russian economy. With that in mind , since 2016 the financial elites in Moscow have placed their bets in Siberia and a Real-Estate investment spree has taken hold . Elsewhere the Russian energy sector is following the lead . In December 2018 , The Yamal energy project which is a 27 billion dollar energy venture in the Arctic reached full capacity thanks to warming temperatures . Multi-Billion dollar projects such as these reinforce the notion that climate change grants the Kremlin an edge over its rivals.
As noted earlier by mid-century 143 million people are expected to be displaced by climate change this would not only fuel and refugee crisis but also continue to instigate political instability in Europe and North America . As western political institutions turn inward , resources are taken away from countering Kremlin's activities. These dynamics will intensify as waves of climate change refugees accelerate.In the past Moscow has demonstrated that they are able and willing to exploit domestic divisions to weaken western institutions and further his own agenda. Moscow could reap numerous advantages from the political and economic crisis fueled by an even larger refugee crisis.
Without doubt this will strengthen the hand of the Russian state . The final Point of consideration is the impact of rising sea levels on the US military and thereby its worldwide power projection . In 2018 the US department of defense found that nearly half nearly half of America's military installations are in danger of significant damage from extreme weather . Later that year in October Hurricane Michael destroyed as many as 17 F-22 raptors which were stored in an airbase in hangers in Florida . The cost of damage was estimated at a staggering 338 million dollars and affected around 10% of the American F-22 inventory . Incidents such as these offer a glimpse into the time to come so in the decades ahead Washington will have to reinforce or relocate more than 1700 military installations . This will be an extraordinary expensive endeavor that will force the American leadership to de-prioritize the geographical containment of Russia . It is entirely possible that in the face of such surging military costs , American policymakers would reduce their security commitments abroad. Either way Rising sea levels will weaken America's ability to project power across the globe while creating long term opportunities for the Russians.
So Siberian Agriculture , Arctic shipping , climate change refugees and reduced US military commitments adds to the Kremlin's belief in positive climate change. In turn the confident attitude drives the country's lack of commitments in reducing climate green house emissions .Although Russia has passed energy and ecological legislations at the domestic level and the government has allocated about $22 Billion on a new environmental program but on the whole despite being one of the top contributor to Global greenhouse gas emissions, Russia has taken a wait-and-see attitude to the growing crisis of Climate change . The government hasn't even ratified the Paris agreement despite signing up for it .
Likewise Moscow's reluctance to grapple with climate change doesn't mean the country is exempt from its consequences . The specified benefits comes at a moderate temperature increase , while a significant rise in heat will yield in disaster. According to Russian Environmental Ministry ,an increase of 4 degrees will result in Hotbed of diseases due to contaminated drinking water and insects across the country . Southern Russia is at a risk of flooding which could deform railways and lead to accidents ,meanwhile the central portion the country will see an overheating of buildings during heatwaves that could exhaust energy and water supplies in the Urban centers. At the same time the far eastern regions would be prone to mass flooding . On a more current note the Environmental Ministry stated that deaths from environmental disasters in Russia have increased 11 folds between 2016 and 2020.
Thus while the Russian political and financial elite placed their bets on the Siberian Farmlands and the arctic shipping , The actual consequences of Climate change are far from clear. Unforeseen and Unintended episodes are bound to emerge over the years still if political leaders had an epiphany for the Kremlin, the benefits outweigh the costs.
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