As Napoleon once said "To know a Nations Geography is to Know its foreign Policy" . Five years after penning the most expensive submarine contact ever Paris and Canberra are at loggerheads. The agreement over 50 Billion$ was intended to replace Australia's ageing Submarine fleet with a French design but on Sept15th 2021 Canberra torpedoed the deal . In its placed emerged a new agreement between Australia ,The United Kingdom and The United States ; dubbed as AUKUS the new trilateral pact promises Australia Nuclear Submarines, Missile Systems and cyber warfare capabilities. The apparent goal is to contain an emerging China . Paris is indignant, Beijing is concerned and there is a fear that the deal could trigger a regional arms race.
Four key factors shape Australian thinking . First, The country is an island second, It is substantially large third , Other islands surround it and fourth it is far away from great powers . Historically these factors shielded Australia from foreign aggression, whatever benefits adversaries thought to gain from an invasion were offset by immense costs. Threats could only come by sea and as long as Canberra maintained powerful Naval allies , its maritime interests and Sea-based trade were secured . In the early years this meant alignment with Britain and in this respect countries colonial roots served it well . The Royal Navy protected Australian shipping, The imperial shipping network granted access to The Indian Ocean and the sharing of British Technology bolstered Australia's industrial output . In return Australians would fight to protect imperial positions in Europe,Africa and the Middle East . But Canberra's alignment to London could only last so long as the balance of power supported it and after loosing Singapore to Japan in 1942 Britain was no longer a naval power in the Pacific . Fearing encroachment from Imperial Japan Canberra turned towards America for its defense and by serving as a staging ground for US Navy's Pacific campaign Australia embedded itself in the American alliance structure . The 1951 ANZUS treaty formalized this relationship . From then on Canberra committed itself to Washington's grand strategy of Anti-Communist containment . Australian troops were sent to fight in Korea and Vietnam. The outback paid host to American surveillance facilities and Canberra lent its support to the purging of the Indonesian Communist Party (ICP).
Though these efforts Australia demonstrated itself as a valuable regional asset while US support bolstered its influence in The Pacific .Shield from the currents of great power competition, Canberra made inroads into the surrounding islands. Aid packages and loans kept countries like Papua New Guinea and Vanuatu in line While Australian trained Police and Military forces established a stable investment climate all while a series of offshore detention centers serviced the country's immigration system. Thus the American alliance was crucial to Australia's regional power and Economic prosperity .
So given Australia's one dimensional foreign policy , The French-Australian submarine deal surprised many analysts Not least due to its immense cost . Yet on the surface the deal made sense, For years the Royal Australian Navy had struggled to replace its ageing fleet of 'Colin Class submarines' . They were not fit for defending Australian waters from a modern Blue water navy .
In 2016 French and Australian Lawmakers negotiated a deal to modernize Australia's submarine fleet while boosting its domestic defense industry. This would strengthen Australia's sea denying capabilities while allowing local manufacturers to expand their skill and knowledge. For French the deal represented a chance to win a valuable ally . Paris maintains pacific territories in New Caledonia and French Polynesia as such a pact with Australia appeared to advance French interests in the region.However the french Designed Barracuda Class submarines stumbled upon delay after delay circumstances became to Wrangle Canberra ,Meanwhile China was on a breakneck naval buildup commissioning a dozen warships annually . By 2021 the Geo-political needs had changed dramatically ,Diesel Electric submarines weren't good enough anymore , their range and stealth capabilities were restricted by fuel and most importantly France was a wrong ally for Australia.
Buying weapons is a delicate long term policy the customer must be confident that the vendor is committed to supply spare parts and upgrades in the event of hostilities. while France is willing to sell high-tech weapons during peacetime , things might get a tad more complicated in the war time. China could see the supply of spare parts as an act of aggression and France won't be willing to risk its relations with China for Australia.
Australia needs not just weapons but a comprehensive relationship with a naval power willing to take on significant risks and confront China Head on and while Paris's interests in the Pacific are sincere. France is not a counterweight to China . ultimately these divergent strategic priorities caused the deal to fail.
However Dis-interest is not a word in Washington's vocabulary not least where China is concerned and as the Thucydides Trap closes in Indo-Pacific American Policy Makers are preoccupied with strengthening their ties to the region. This has lead to the creation of containment blocks like the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue(Quad) and has necessitated the withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan and Iraq. Thus the announcement of AUKUS was merely the latest chapter in an emerging cold war between China and the West. For Washington it strengthens the southern boundary of its Maritime Containment Strategy. The nuclear powered submarines provided by the agreement will allow the Australian Navy to Police strategic choke points in the Lombok ,Sunda and The Makassar Straits while also enabling it to conduct operations in the South China Sea. This follows to Australia's Northern port facilities to accommodate American Warships.
For London AUKUS gives Prime Minister Boris Johnson to pursue his ambitions for a Global Britain. Following Brexit, Westminster has sought to re-establish ties with the commonwealth states . In 1973 the imperial trade network that helped Australia build its economy was dismantled upon Britain's ascension to the European Community. After London turned toward Brussels , Canberra turned towards Beijing. Now that these relationships have fallen apart the two nations have turned back towards each other . An Anglo-Australian Free Trade Deal was signed earlier this year and the AUKUS partnership would extend the co-operation to the military sphere.
Yet The AUKUS deal has not been without its critics . For starters Australia lacks a domestic nuclear industry so developing one will take time and given that the Australian fleet is due to retire in the 2030s the existing boats may go out of service faster than they can be replaced .Naturally Australia could borrow submarines to to fill the gap but this would add cost to an already expensive program.Beyond this ,a rapidly changing strategic environment may render the boats obsolete before they ever leave the factory floor. The AUKUS pact has also created a rift between the Anglo-sphere and Paris . France is entitled to compensation and as a regional power in the Pacific, Paris has not taken the snub lightly ,far from it. French officials have accused the Anglo-sphere states of stabbing France in the back and recalled its US ambassador for the first time since 1776.
Yet this theatrical diplomacy obscures what really is at stake. French discontent could undermine NATO consensus on Indo-pacific policy and if Paris thinks its western allies are unreliable it maybe disinclined to take a hard line on Beijing. There are also consequences for Australia. Since 2018 Canberra and Brussels have been negotiating a Free Trade Agreement , now that Australia has renegade on its Submarine contract ,Paris could retaliate with its power within the European Union to stall or terminate the trade deal.
There is little doubt though that the agreement has caused disquiet within the leadership circles of China . The denial of a shanghai port call by a German Frigate just following the deals announcement is a subtle indication of Beijing's disapproval of the West. Understandably the reactions of regional stakeholders have been mixed . The other members of QUAD India and Japan have welcomed the agreement especially New Delhi which sees AUKUS as a possible gateway for future co-operation with the west . Meanwhile Jakarta has expressed trepidation and a scheduled meeting between Australian and Indonesian lawmakers has been cancelled presumably because of the latters desire to be neutral . Finally the deal has further marginalized New Zealand . Wellington's long standing ban on meant that it was precluded from joining AUKUS . Moreover the country's reluctance to criticize Beijing has distinguished itself from its Australian ally . New Zealand maybe setting itself up as a possible mediator in future dialogue between Australia ,The US and China .
Whatever the Outcome The AUKUS pact has altered Indo-Pacific's global calculus and where deterrence is concerned, perception is as good as reality.
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