Predictions of a grim future has been a common practice throughout history. India and china have been fighting over influence in Asia , both are trying to corner markets but in the past decade China has gained the upper hand with its economic projects in the eastern Hemisphere.
India is a large trading partner in its own right but china's Belt and Road initiative have fueled fears of encirclement. To protect its interests India is launching several ambitious commercial corridors in all directions, if successful could configure trade across the region. India would transform into a pillar of global economy giving it influence and political say. It is a grand strategy of enormous weight.
Since joining the WTO in 2001 china has seek to reinvent regional connectivity in Eurasia. The best known example of this policy is the BRI project launched in 2013 which includes large scale investments in infrastructure including in ports that practically encircle India and bypassing it as a means to marginalize competition. It is also a way to exercise influence in India's backyard. Some projects such as the CPEC undermines the Integrity of India and also outright relegates India from entering the markets of Central Asia.
One of the Ways India seeks to Counter this is the International North South Transport Corridor(INSTC) . First signed in September 2000 the corridor looks to develop connectivity in reaching European market .Starting in Mumbai a multi modular route would link to the Iranian port of Bandaer Abbas from there the rail infrastructure would link to Baku further up to Moscow and finally resting at st. petersburg. With a Length of 7200km the INSTC would stop at various hubs creating value chains in the process.
Value chains are commercial corridors where large infrastructure investments are coupled with an industrial base . So a route going from Mumbai to St. Petersburg will steadily develop additional hubs within these two points creating a dynamic manufacturing belt that stretches nations and regions. A trial conducted in 2017 revealed that the INSTC is 40% faster and 30% cheaper than the traditional maritime route going through the Suez canal and the Mediterranean.
Everything about the North -South Transport corridor is revolutionary the trouble however is Iran. Being a mountainous country it lacks in rail infrastructure and there are still places that need overhauling. This wont have been a problem if Iran wasn't under international sanctions making economic collaboration difficult and risky.India has spent 2 decades adjusting the technical aspects of the corridor but has made no headway whatsoever. As long as Iran is under sanctions INSTC would remain a questionable venture.
With the neighborhood first policy making little progress with Chinese influence growing in the region . The Asia - Africa growth corridor,brainchild of India and Japan that aimed to link the two Continents through new shipping lanes but factoring the lack of implementation plan and the non-disclosure of the participating African nations no significant breakthrough has been made in this regard either. Some even Commenting that it was merely a PR stunt to bolster Indo-Japan relations on a political front.
India's latest commercial Belt is Aiming for Europe and it seems to be more practical than the previous programs. Coined as the Arab-Mediterranean route the project aims to connect India to the European market using the existing rail road infrastructure in the Middle east .
The game changer is the Israels Normalization of relations with its Arab Neighbors after the Abraham accords signed last year. Rail connection is being established at a rapid pace going from the ports in the United Arab Emirates to Saudi Arabia and Jordan to the Israeli port city of Haifa.
From the Israeli coast,goods will be shipped across the Mediterranean to Greece and from there further inland into continental Europe. India's Goal is to tap into this emerging corridor and develop and arc of commerce extending from India to the UAE all the way to Israel Greece and all the way to Germany.
Interesting thing is that India wont be alone in re-configuring the Arab Mediterranean corridor , it would merely have to extend a belt from Abu-Dhabi to Mumbai . Most of the infrastructure for this corridor is already in place. Once the corridor is operational, Indian goods could be in Europe in as little as 10 days.
It wont just be Europe that will be the main destination, by linking into the existing infrastructure India help develop value chains along the corridor . India's giant agricultural sector could emerge as a formidable force in the regional supply and demand. For context climate change is expected to affect west Asia drastically in the coming decades, the region is warming twice the global average. By 2050 there will be prolonged periods of heatwave while desertification will accelerate and droughts will last longer, food and water will become scarce . India being the 4th largest agricultural producer could step up as the food basket of the middle East Along this corridor . already plans are set in motion as India will be investing close to 7 Billion dollars in Food parks and working closely with Israel to enhance agricultural output.India also recently completed the Delhi-Mumbai expressway that would facilitate good movement to the ports of Mumbai.
The Arab- Mediterranean corridor looks primarily at the markets of Europe the agonizing situation of the middle east open new avenues for commerce. However the corridor is a geopolitical minefield , going into business with Saudi Arabia and Israel would harm relationship with Iran and china would be quick to fill the gap with over 400billion$ already set to be invested by it in Iran .
The Greek port of port of Pireus is owned by COSCO shipping which is a chinese state owned conglomerate which demands India to create a port of its own in the eastern Mediterranean.
still in-spite of the challenges an arc from India to Europe via middle east is a sensible and practical course of action. To introduce change one must design a new configuration that makes the existing reality obsolete.
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