Diplomacy in Djibouti is all about the art of the possible the attainable and when all else fails , the art of the next best thing .South of the capital of Djibouti , Military compounds , outposts airfields docks and all sorts of military facilities dot the landscape . They belong separately to France , Japan , Italy and The United States with Spanish and German Forces being stationed in the French base. Some 10 Kms to the North is an imposing Chinese compound with sophisticated surveillance equipment.
It is in Djibouti where various militaries are closer to One another than anywhere else .
Shortly after gaining Independence from France in 1977 , Djibouti went through a violent phase where it grappled with ethnic tensions , economic volatility and political insecurity . Today however the country is considered a rare beacon of stability . At the price of political freedom the government has maintained peace while the national GDP per capita steadily climbed to 3700$. compared to neighboring Ethiopia , Eritrea , Somalia which sit at 800$, 700$ and 665$ respectively, Djibouti is doing remarkably well.
The secret to its success lies in its territory. Not the land itself though as it has no meaningful natural resources to speak of. the climate is arid with land being mostly dry . just two generations ago most of its residents lived as nomads yet in-spite of its size policymakers in Djibouti have ambitious plans. To attain this objective the Djiboutian leadership has been willing to take some political risks.
At a little over 23000 square Kms and with less than a million citizens , Djibouti is valued for its Geo-Strategic position. Bordered by Ethiopia in the West , Somalia in the East and Eritrea to the North and the Eastern coastline touching the red sea thereby connecting the markets of the Mediterranean sea with the Arabian sea and the Indian Ocean. The Djibouti Port overlooks some of the worlds busiest shipping lanes , nearly 25% of the global exports pass through its waters including 4.8 million barrels of crude oil and refined petroleum products on a daily base . Complicating matters is the strait of Bab-el-Mandeb , A 32km wide passage between Djibouti and Yemen . Unlike the Suez canal in the North where Egyptians have worked tirelessly to stabilize and enhance the logistics , The Bab-el-Mandeb is surrounded by clusters of weak states such as Yemen ,Eritrea and by extension of Somaliland,Somalia itself. As such the odds of severe disruption in global trade is highest in this region . The nearby states are so caught up in their domestic struggles that they are inherently incapable to secure their territorial waters let alone let alone the adjacent international maritime passages . This lack of naval focus is one of the critical factors that contributed to the rise of piracy around the Somali coast . For the Global community which relies on freedom of navigation , the lack of internal and external stability in the Horn of Africa has been a persistent source of concern . The urgent need for stability is what propelled the Government to rent its strategic real estate to foreign militaries looking up to set bases. Without any other form of income , Territory was used as a means of generating capital and also secured its waters without having to spend much on its own military. Most of the international shipping passing through the Bab-el-Mandeb strait prefer the Djiboutian coastline bypassing the Perim island which also works in the countries favor.
French Troops numbering around 1500 personnel remained in Djibouti even after the country gained independence , in the past two decades however Djibouti moved its interests beyond France which also reflects the loss of French influence across Africa . After the 9/11 attacks the pentagon leased a former french compound where it currently houses about 6000 soldiers accompanied by a host of fighter planes bombers drones and helicopters. In 2013 Italy joined the Banquet and set up a base with 300 personnel and shortly after Spanish and German forces embedded themselves to the French base but its not just NATO that runs the show. As more Global powers realized that Djibouti was ideally suited for peacekeeping missions and combating piracy off the coast of Yemen and Somalia , Asian countries signed up as well. In 2011 Japan constructed a base for its 600 troops and recently expressed plans to expand local docks and runways. Even Saudi Arabia is in Negotiations to open its own military facility is Djibouti which would serve as an attack base for the War in Yemen and to support the Saudi led coalition over there . Ethiopia has acquired a significant stake in a commercial Djiboutian port as well.
Overshadowing the competition is China's massive military fortress which has 3 underground floors and can accommodate up-to 10,000 soldiers. At a staggering cost of 590$ million it is Beijing first overseas military base outside Asia . Djibouti also hosts naval vessels from numerous countries in its commercial ports providing fresh supplies, maintenance , and recreational needs . All this turns the country into a Geo-Political laboratory where Europe Africa and Asia converge and interact . Altogether these foreign militaries generate more than 300 $ million in annual income for the Djiboutian Government , for a small African state , that is a significant amount . Even if the political leadership changed the practice of renting Real-Estate to foreign militaries would remain the same .
Beyond that , Djibouti also acts as the sole entry point for neighboring Ethiopia . The landlocked African giant with a population of 102 million and a booming economy ships almost 95% of its trade through the ports of Djibouti. Hence it is crucial for Ethiopia to stay on good terms with the Djiboutian leadership . Cross-Border trade between the two countries is so profound that up until the inauguration of new Addis Ababa-Djibouti Railway in 2018 port and rail capacities had reached their limit. As Ethiopians grow in numbers and their purchasing power grows along with it , Djibouti stands to hitchhike on the ascent of Addis Ababa since its likely to remain the primary entry point to the country in the coming decades.
Another international partner that stands out is China , while most foreign governments have strictly focused on counter piracy and counter terrorism activities , Beijing has invested in ports, railways ,banks , industrial parks etc . In the context of the Belt and Road initiative China needs access to strategic physical assets and natural resources across the globe. such infrastructure assets are necessary to ensure that Chinese exports can reach consumer markets without interruptions. The more physical assets Beijing has the more secure its resupply and logistic points become . For China Djibouti marks a critical point in the supply of Belt and Road which explains the presence of the Chinese military .
As impressive as the economics of Djibouti sounds , the policy isn't without its deficiencies. For most the growing economic power of the state has not benefited ordinary people in any meaningful way . Despite years of high GDP growth poverty rates stand at 79% with 42% of the country living in extreme poverty. Economic growth has mostly resulted in political confidence allowing the government to become more repressive than it was in the past . Secondly much of the GDP growth has come with Chinese credit for instance in recent years Beijing extended a 250$ million loan for Djiboutis free trade zone, it then provided another 500$ million for a new railway another 400$ million for a new container port . Thats a lot of money for a small African state and it goes without saying that some of these projects come with predatory loans where credit is offered with little to no interest early on followed by high interest for many years . For comparison Djiboutis current public debt totals 104% of its GDP and most of it is owed to Beijing .
However for leaders of Djibouti overseeing a small country with no resources Chinese credit is crucial for preventing unrest . Without credit the subsequent instability would undermine everything the state worked for in the past two decades . Thus aware of the debt trap Djiboutian policy makers dont have much choice in the matter . The third deficiency in the Geo-economic policy of Djibouti is that its advances have inspired other countries to act as well , especially the nations of the Arabian Peninsula . In June 2017 Qatar withdrew its peacekeeping contingent from the disputed frontier between Djibouti and Eritrea allowing Eritrean forces to occupy the area at the same time Saudi law-makers started negotiating to establish a military footprint of their own in Djibouti to combat Houthi rebels in Yemen. Still in 2017 lawmakers in Somaliland which considers itself independent from rest of Somalia agreed to allow the UAE to set up a naval base at the port of Berbera and upgrade the local port facilities . Emirati Policymakers have also set up bases in Eritrea while Turkey is working on sophisticated naval ports in Somalia and Sudan .
All this activity illustrates that the Horn of Africa is amid considerable Geo-political strife where global and regional powers seek to expand their holdings . Djibouti is perhaps the single most strategic state in the periphery . It has the potential to develop as a gateway for landlocked African countries and serve as a major shipping center connecting Europe Africa and Asia but the state must walk a fine line as the competition for ports will intensify in the coming years.
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