Cynicism runs deep in the Middle-East and mistrust has shaped much of the bonds between societies.The lack of interstate trade and communications is among the reasons for continued hostilities , Now however 2 new mega projects are in the work that seek to embed the rival nations in a web of commerce. Dubbed as the track for regional peace and the other project being the city of Neom ,The two initiatives seek to physically connect Israel to the Arab world and in the process normalize those ties.
The Middle-East is undergoing a historic transformation Israel in particular is on the verge of normalizing its relations with the Arab world . since its inception in 1948 Israel had to deal with belligerence on all sides , allies have been few and far between. The result of this status-quo was conflict upon conflict and although Israel emerged triumphant in each encounter a single defeat could undo everything. For Israel therefore it was imperative to fix its relationship with its neighbors.Now after decades of futile efforts normalization seems within reach. In august 2020 the United Arab Emirates announced a deal to start diplomatic communications and open regular air travel with Israel . This was then followed by similar announcements from Bahrain Oman Sudan and morocco. Backdoor diplomatic relations existed since 2005 and even though ever Arab state has its own distinct reason to normalize ties there are a few overlapping considerations.
First and Foremost pan-Arabism and pan-Islamism has lost influence and credibility in the Arab world and this has come at the expense of Palestinians . For decades the Arab world enshrined with pan-Arabism has granted the Palestinian leadership the ultimate veto in normalizing relations with Israel . This fixed equation gave Palestinians extraordinary Geo-political weight . With the decline of Pan-Arabism the Palestinian veto expired and bilateral ties took precedence while multilateral institutions like Arab League declined in importance. Oman started accommodating Israeli lawmakers, Bahrain hosted Israeli business delegations ,Qatar worked with Israel to supply humanitarian aid to the Gaza strip and Saudi Arabia acquires Israeli weapon and technologies .
Another fact that enabled normalization with Israel was the rise of a proactive Iran and the Arab spring that embellished Iranian influence. No single state could contain Iran therefore alliances becomes a must. when the Israelis and the Arabs felt threatened the two joined forces. This doctrine enabled the formation of backdoor channels for intelligence sharing, weapon deals etc. So while Iran made political and military advances in Lebanon ,Syria, Iraq and Yemen Israel reached out to the Arab states by the gulf.
Its fair to say that rise of Iran and decline of pan-Arabism are essential to the Arab -Israeli relations, They aren't the only factors. Potential for commercial activity is another component. Two economic mega projects hold the key in understanding the changing parameters .
The first is the "Tracks for Regional Peace Initiative" , publicly announced in 2019 by Israel's Ministry of foreign affairs and endorsed by the Trump government the project intends to create a trade corridor connecting Europe with the Persian Gulf . The plan is to construct a railway from the Israeli port city of Haifa ,to Jordan , From Jordan onward the railway would go South-west into Saudi Arabia connecting with the existing North South Line. Inland ports will need to be constructed in Jordan and Saudi Arabia as well to handle the increase in regional trade . From the Saudi North-South railway the flow of trade would go to the ports in Bahrain ,Oman and the United Arab Emirates and from there connect with the broader international market .Upon completion the rail network would transport cargo and in the future people as well , The mega project would make trade more secure as it will bypass the threats arising from the Straits of Hormuz which is dominated by Iran. However Trade traffic via the overland railway would only become profitable somewhere around 2030. The project would positively contribute to the regional economies especially in the non-oil sector and it just so happens that each of the participating country is normalizing its ties with Israel
The Second mega project is the Saudi mega-city of Neom . Situated at the Entrance of the gulf of Aqaba in the red sea , Neom is a make or break initiative with a price tag of 500$ dollars .Its about the size of Belgium and it seeks to tap into the trade that passes through the red sea via the Suez canal hence its location But that is not all , the blueprint of the city envisions a city that hosts high tech industries such as biotechnology,advance manufacturing , digital services and so on . In a way purpose of Neom is to reform the Saudi economy and propel the nation into the post oil era that is the reason Crown Prince Salman considers Neom as his flagship project . The idea is to attract skilled people from all around the Globe by incentivising them with the best standards of living who would then help to diversify the Saudi economy which mainly relies on Oil exports
However Neom also seeks to connect Saudi Arabia to Egypt and Jordan across the straits of Tiran which is a narrow passage between Sinai and the Arabian peninsulas. Part of the Neom blueprint is to construct a 10 Km long Bridge across the Tiran Straits , The trouble is the 1979 peace treaty between Israel and Egypt guarantees the former's access to the red sea any infrastructure that crosses the straits of Tiran would therefore violates Israels rights and Jerusalem has been firm in its stance towards the straits . So as grand as the Neom Project is , it can only be accomplished with Saudi Arabia's formal recognition of Israel.
Both initiatives The Tracks for Regional Peace or The Mega-City of Neom involve two players Israel and Saudi Arabia. For Israel normalization is central to its existence and security and for Riyadh meanwhile there are additional considerations . While the Iranians have gained ground in Syria Iraq an Yemen the Israelis have achieved some goals in Oman, Bahrain and UAE by contrast the Saudi Kingdom has lost ground in both areas , it has lost influence to Iran and by unofficially befriending Israel the Saudis have lost credibility in Arab societies elsewhere so Saudi Arabia is in a desperate need of a win. Constructing Neom city while also transforming into a trading hub is surely a win that the Saudis can justify
One element that is beyond the control of the Arab government is the public opinion . An overwhelming majority of the Arab society from North Africa to The Middle-East oppose diplomatic recognition of Israel so these projects are conducted exclusively between government officials while neglecting the popular opinion. The will of the Public must be taken into consideration if genuine normalization is to succeed.
Comentários