As a significant power in East Asia, Japan has long struggled to find its place in the region in the previous century alone have the country rapidly modernized itself and altered between various ideas ranging from isolationism, militarism, mercantilism to centralized governance and consumer based economy. However, Tokyo's past challenges are not merely submerged in history, many problems remain unaddressed. Located along the northeastern coastline of East Asia of the state of Japan consists of 6852 islands, with the four largest islands being Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu and Shikoku. These islands account for 97% of Japan's landmass and constitute as the home islands roughly 104 million people of the total 126 million reside in the central Honshu island. That is well over 82% of the country's population. Another 13 million reside in the Southwest in the island of Kyushu.To the east between Honshu and Kyushu lies the island of Shikoku, which is home to about 4 million people ,meanwhile in the Far North 5 million people inhabit Hokkaido island. One more northward the island is Okinawa. Which is part of the Ryukyu Islands, which in turn stretches from Kyushu to Taiwan. Although formally Okinawa is recognized as a home island, it's distinct history, culture and location differs from the remainder of Japan. There are 1000s of smaller islands that surround the five home islands. But the most observable factor of Japan is the mountainous nature of the land. In content of total area, Japan is about the size of Germany or Poland. However about 73% of Japan consists of mountains, forests, and wastelands which are unfavorable to human habitation. The limited supply of flat terrain means that Japan has a shortage of habitable land. As a result, the society is confined to thin strips of coastal plates that surround the home islands. In total, about 27% of Japan is considered habitable, which is roughly the size of South Korea. Of that number only 11% is actually arable in comparison, Germany and Poland have about 35% of arable land. Because of Japan's rugged geography, the population is densely centered around the arable plains. The largest of these is the Kanto plane, which is located in central Honshu, the Kanto plane constitutes 4% of Japan's total territory, but it is home to 35 million people, including the capital Tokyo. Other important planes include the Osaka and Nobi plates. Collectively, these three territories provide the largest agricultural output and serve as the economic and political corpse of Japan. There are many more smaller plates spread throughout the archipelago, but there is no internal river system connecting the population zones. More specifically, Japan has plenty of levers that are useful for irrigation, but most of them are not navigable for a medium sized cargo freighter carrying about 500 metric tons, a river must be at least 2.75 meters deep. Japan has a shortage of such a rivers. what the country has instead is the Seto Inland Sea which is the birthplace of Japanese civilization. Historically, the sea encourage the local populations to develop a dynamic maritime culture and turn of naval traditions enabled the formation of a coherent nation but asserting centralized authority remains a centuries old challenge for the historical rulers in modern times. The Seto Inland Sea serves as the Nexus collecting the largest cities of the country.
Foreign policy wise, Japan is surrounded by powerful regional players such as China, Russia, South Korea, and even North Korea. Some countries such as Russia pose no significant threat to Japan since their influence is limited in East Asia. That being said Moscow has expressed plans to improve the economic significance of the Sakhalin Island to counterbalance Japanese influence, whether the Russians will actually succeed still remains to be seen. Another Russian risk to Japan are the Kuril Islands which separate the Pacific Ocean from the Sea of Okhotsk. Whoever is in full control over the islands will be able to restrict naval access to the Sea of Japan from the north, which forms a crucial part of Japan's access to the global seaborne routes.The importance of the Kuril islands will only increase over time, especially since Moscow plans to rely more on its nuclear submarines in the future. Tokyo only claims the southern islands which have no strategic value of their own, but for Russian point of view, there is no guarantee that Tokyo won't extend its claims to the Northern Kuril islands hence, the Russians deny the Japanese claim altogether. A more immediate issue as the southern tip of the Korean peninsula, which sits at a distance of about 190 kilometers from the island of Kyushu. Historically, this area has served as a land bridge connecting the Japanese Archipelago to the mainland of Asia. It allowed for historic foreign rulers to threaten Japan. But the Kyushu entry point goes both ways and it enables Japanese forces to invade the Korean peninsula in the 16th 19th and 20th centuries. Another pathway Island is Okinawa, which, along with the other Ryukyu Islands connects the Japanese home islands to Taiwan, and from there, the South China Sea. Whoever has a foothold in Okinawa will have the advantage to mobilize swiftly between Japan and Taiwan. The importance of this island is highlighted by the presence of US military forces. In modern times, However, Japan's greatest threat is it's declining and aging population between the 70s and 90s the number of retirees nearly doubled. This placed additional burdens on the country's recession in the 1990s and that the present Japan experiences some of the lowest fertility rates in the world, which is the result of its unique social and cultural norms. In the long term Japan's demographic decline is simply unsustainable. It is expected that by 2050, the country's population will shrink from 126 million in 2070 to 107 million in 2050. And further decline to 83 million by the end of the century. Meanwhile, with a segment of working age citizens, that will be less than half of the projected numbers, the extent of the demographic decline is simply unmatched in history. Most European countries with similar demographic problems balance their needs through immigration. However, Japan's ethnic homogeneous society is somewhat xenophobic, and resistant to immigration. As such, the country's demographic crisis is far worse than in other comparable nations. Now, a smaller workforce will not necessarily result in lower industrial output since innovations in AI research robotics automation will maintain productivity levels, but demography affects much more than just industrial output. It means a decline in domestic consumption and corporate profits, which is bound to result in shrinking tax revenues and even less public spending. As the country's income and population continues to decline. The country will have two options before it Japan because either end up as a smaller and older social welfare state secluded in the eastern corner of Asia, that is simply incapable of securing its geopolitical imperatives or it will have to come to terms with the inconvenient demographic reality and thus open up to immigration and thereby rejuvenate itself. Both options will be met with opposition and discontent from the public. Yet if history is any indication, Japan has never held back from abrupt changes. Another issue that plagues Japan is the country's lack of natural resources as a producer of high end commodities. Japanese industries require vast quantities of mineral resources such as lead, copper, zinc, iron, rubber, and more. All of these raw materials are imported from abroad. And since the country is an island, the import of resources and export of commodities must go by sea .
As industrialized as Japan is, the country simply cannot provide for its basic resources.It doesn't even produce enough food on its soil, according to the Japanese government they can only feed 66% of the nation and the remaining food is actually imported and heavily subsidized by the government. Another example is the lack of energy security. About 90% of Tokyo's energy needs comes from foreign sources. This number rose from 80% following the Fukushima nuclear disaster. In this framework, the geo economics of Japan is determined by its dependency on maritime traffic that passes through the Indian Ocean, the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca. All of these areas are susceptible to foreign influences and beyond the Japanese Navy's ability of securing them. As such, Tokyo follows a subjugated foreign policy in which a maritime dependent nation seeks to ally itself with the global naval power. The task of the global power is to ensure the security of the maritime traffic and in return the smaller nation alleviates the needs of the larger power. It's a relationship that is based on self interest and it has cultivated in the American Japanese Alliance so to safeguard its maritime shipping lanes. Tokyo relies on Washington for naval security and to ensure American cooperation Tokyo must make itself invaluable to Washington. To that extent, Japan has helped to preserve the strength of the US dollar through favorable exchange rates, and it has rendered humanitarian support in Afghanistan and Iraq. Now, officials in Tokyo have expressed an aspiration to become militarily and economically independent. However, given the geopolitical circumstances it is a process that is gradual and cannot be rushed for now, Japan like many other nations is part of the American hegemony. In return, Washington guarantees the maritime security of Tokyo which is essential to Japan's statehood. That being said Japan's relationship with the United States has also become detrimental towards China and to Russia. Of the two colossal powers China is the more immediate threat following the outcome of World War Two the relations between Beijing and Tokyo were determined by two essential factors China supplied to Japan with raw materials and labor intensive manufactured commodities, while Japan supplies China with high end technology and services. However, in the last few decades, China underwent an extensive process of industrialization. As such Beijing is now competing with Tokyo for the same resources and raw materials to fuel their respective economies ,in the next few decades China is expected to shift from an export driven economy to a domestic consumption based economic model, which will only accelerate the need for resources .In this context, the Chinese Japanese rivalry is also expected to increase in time.
The bottom line is considering the mountainous and sparsely populated landscape of Japan,It took the country centuries to form a coherent central government, hence maintaining that central authority in the home islands is Tokyo's primary geopolitical objective. This is followed by a number of secondary objectives, which include the following First, Tokyo must secure the pathways into the Japanese home islands by establishing a firm stronghold in the Ryukyu Islands as well as South Korea and Taiwan. Since the latter two are included in the American Coalition, Japan has the luxury to remain passive on this issue. The next task for Tokyo is to restrict immediate access to foreign navies by gaining control over the Kuril and Sakhalin Island. This objective is beyond Japan's capacity and thus remains unfulfilled. However, should Russia ever experience another alteration of its borders, then Japan could seize the moment and gain control over Sakhalin Island and push as far north as possible in the Kuril islands. The final objective for Japan is to secure its maritime trading routes for raw materials and energy resources. Since this is beyond Tokyo's needs, Japan must instead extract security guarantees from the United States. To accomplish this objective. Tokyo must retain US support while marginally pursuing an independent foreign policy.
Comments